Crunching Numbers - How Prior Oscar Picks Fared

As I was working on this year's Oscars Picks post, I wondered just how accurately picks from previous years turned out.  Curiosity got the better of me, and I went back through my records to see how well my friend Wieder and I have fared with our picks in the years that such a post has been made.

This year marks the fifth of the last seven that I've made an Oscar related post including my thoughts on who would win.  Originally I only considered eight categories (the six big ticket awards and the screenplay categories). More recently, as I've been able to see a larger number of nominees, I have expanded the number of categories picked to twenty (all but the documentary and short film categories).  As you will see from the numbers below, having seen more nominees and picking more categories does not necessarily equate to picking more accurately.

My first set of picks was back in 2008 and was posted via the blog on my myspace page (those picks have been re-posted here).  I missed 2009, but made a similar post in 2010 via a note on my facebook page.  Just a couple of months later, the earliest iteration of this blog was born and picks have been shared here ever since (2012 being the exception - I didn't see enough nominees to make educated picks).  So, not that anyone other than Wieder and I are interested, but this is how accurately our selections have turned out over the years:

2008 - Me: 5/8 (63%)
2009 - Me: 0/0 (*no post)
2010 - Me: 6/8 (75%)
2011 - Me: 6/8 (75%), Wieder: 5/8 (63%)
2012 - Me: 0/0 (*no post)
2013 - Me: 11/20 (55%), Wieder: 11/20 (55%)

Overall (four years of picks for me, two for Wieder)
- Me: 28/44 (64%)
- Wieder: 16/28 (57%)

The numbers are better than I had thought, but the earlier years skew the data (for the better) as picks weren't made in the technical categories.


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